Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R125. We recommend a stop-loss at R106.
AutoZone Inc. is a retailer of automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company offers an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products. AutoZone serves customers in the United States (US), Puerto Rico, Brazil, and Mexico.
The company employs a dual sales model, catering to individual customers through its retail stores and www.autozone.com, while also supporting professional businesses such as repair garages and dealerships via a dedicated commercial sales programme with credit and delivery, accessible through www.autozonepro.com and the AutoZone Pro mobile app. AutoZone also sells ALLDATA, its proprietary suite of professional-grade automotive diagnostic, repair, collision, and shop management software, and offers detailed product information for its Duralast brand via duralastparts.com.
Technically, the emergence of a developing Wave 5 within a broader impulsive structure reinforces trend continuation dynamics and signals a potential investment opportunity for the stock (see the number notation 1 to 5 on the main chart). This development of a Wave 5 progression can support upside potential as it highlights the final impulsive phase of a broader five-wave trend sequence. A clear structure of higher highs and higher lows formed from Wave 1 through Wave 4, followed by the emergence of Wave 5, typically points to renewed buying pressure, ultimately supporting the bullish stance.
The price is in the Accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Price Cycle (see the insert on the main chart). This pattern represents a period where informed or institutional participants quietly build positions after a prior markdown phase, typically within a defined trading range.
Fading downside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, and the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, also support our bullish view.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R111.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | AZO |
| Industry | Consumer Discretionary |
| Market Capital (USD) | 60.72 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 6.36% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 8.06% |
| Current Price (USD) | 3 664.84 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 4 388.11 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 3 210.72 |
| Financial Year End | August |
| The price recently tested its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which supports a bull case for the stock and highlights long-term structural demand. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 144.87 | 148.24 | 174.17 | 195.06 |
| Growth (%) | 2.33 | 17.49 | 12.00 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Growth (%) | - | - | - | |
| Forward PE (times) | 24.72 | 21.04 | 18.79 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| The company is set to deliver positive earnings growth over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | DGX - Buy (Close the position) |
KO - Buy (Continue to hold) |
GNRC - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ARKK - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 185.17 | 71.24 | 170.45 | 78.22 |
| Current Price | 205.35 | 76.81 | 182.30 | 72.26 |
| Movement | +10.9% | +7.8% | +7.0% | -7.6% |
| Comment | Take profit. |
An upward-sloping expected price path across selected AI forecast horizons remains of interest. The price remains above its 200-day SMA and upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is $80.00, with a trailing stop at $74.60. |
The price remains in a developing inclining channel pattern and continues to trade above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum supports the trade strategy. Our profit target is $202.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $174.00. |
A developing broadening-bottom pattern remains in focus. The price has dipped below its 200-day SMA and downside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is $98.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $70.00. |
| Time to exit | 21 April 2026 | 29 April 2026 | 8 July 2026 |
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