By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
AB InBev is the largest brewer in the world. The company produces, markets, distributes, and sells a portfolio of over 200 beer brands. Its global flagship brands include Budweiser, Stella Artois, and Beck's. The company fully owns SAB, following the acquisition of SABMiller in October 2016. Headquartered in Leuven, Belgium, ANH is geographically diversified with its footprint spanning across ~50 countries.
The beer category has been under pressure over the last few years. However, AB InBev has managed to counter soft volumes through price and mix benefits as well as strong cost control. The company is expected to continue outperforming the broader beverage industry from a profitability perspective medium term.
Technically, a price that remains firmly within the upward-sloping linear regression channel makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart). It means that the broader trend remains upward, highlighting that underlying demand continues to absorb intermittent selling pressure. This constructive price structure coupled with higher highs and higher lows supports a bullish outlook and points to further upside.
A base forming pattern that reflects consolidation and accumulation at lower levels is also encouraging (see the black parallel trendlines on the price action) as it reflects a period of consolidation amid subsiding selling pressures as buyers begin to accumulate positions. The longer and more defined the base, the more significant the potential rally that may follow, reflecting strong investor conviction and pent-up demand ready to drive the share higher.
Fading downside momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicator, supports our bullish stance.
We suggest a medium capital at risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R1 076.00.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | ANH |
| Industry | Food, Beverage & Tobacco |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 2.08 trillion |
| One Year Total Return | --5.4% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 11.45% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 1 027.51 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 1 297.50 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 873.01 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price remains below both its 200-day and 200-week simple moving averages (SMA) of R1 101.83. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 3.51 | 3.74 | 4.16 | 4.66 |
| Growth (%) | 6.55 | 11.14 | 12.00 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.39 | 1.59 |
| Growth (%) | 23.00 | 12.40 | 14.92 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 15.89 | 14.30 | 12.77 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.07 | 2.33 | 2.68 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive with strong momentum expected over the next few financial periods. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long-term fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CFR - Buy (Continue to hold) |
DCP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 13.22 | 2 980.00 | 32.60 |
| Current Price | 14.96 | 3 258.08 | 34.64 |
| Movement | +13.2% | +9.3% | +6.3% |
| Comment |
A price trading at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R16.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R13.35. |
The formation of wave 1 of the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. The start of upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R3 517.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R3 044.00. |
The price is developing a symmetrical triangle pattern that remains of interest. Crossed above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R37.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R33.00. |
| Time to exit | 17 November 2025 | 28 April 2025 | 29 October 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | SBK - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SHP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
TBS - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 233.57 | 278.33 | 304.50 |
| Current Price | 244.06 | 285.35 | 309.75 |
| Movement | +4.5% | +2.5% | +1.7% |
| Comment |
A price holding above key support remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R261.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R233.00. |
The price development in a well-established inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R312.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R272.00. |
A strong price aligned with a rising Volume Price Trend (VPT), backed by sustained accumulation and buying interest, keeps the potential for further upside after consolidation in focus. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R345.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R293.00. |
| Time to exit | 19 January 2026 | 9 December 2025 | 27 October 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | INL - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 134.01 |
| Current Price | 132.33 |
| Movement | -1.3%% |
| Comment |
An upward-tilted broadening top remains of interest, with the price above its 200-day SMA. Fading momentum poses concern.
Our profit target is R150.75 with a stop-loss at R127.00. |
| Time to exit | 31 December 2025 |
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