By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Adtran Holdings is an American fibre networking and telecommunications company that provides open, disaggregated networking and communications solutions, offering platforms, software, hardware and services to support broadband access and optical networking globally.
The company is a vendor of networking solutions that address a range of applications. Their leading products are focused on fibre networking solutions, particularly optical line terminals (OLTs) and optical network terminals (ONTs), along with optical transport systems and mesh Wi-Fi gateways.
Technically, the stock's ability to hold firm around historically active trading ranges, while maintaining support near its long-term average, presents a promising investment opportunity for the stock (see the insert on the main chart). The heatmap highlights that the share price has spent a considerable amount of time consolidating across well-defined ranges. The combination of strong support and relatively low valuation risk makes the current level attractive for accumulation, supporting the bullish stance.
The price appears to be in the accumulation phase out of the Wyckoff Price Cycle. In this phase, informed market participants gradually build positions following a period of decline. Volatility typically narrows as selling pressure subsides and the price tends to form a base as weak holders exit, and stronger participants take control.
The start of upside price momentum per the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, as well as the sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator supports our bullish view.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | ADTN US |
| Industry | Technology, Hardware and Equipment |
| Market Capital (USD) | 751 million |
| One Year Total Return | 73.46% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 11.40% |
| Current Price (USD) | 9.28 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 12.44 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 4.93 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price's repeated oscillations around, yet sustained support at its 200-day simple moving average, indicates resilience in the long-term trend. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | -0.36 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| Growth (%) | N/A | 140 | 5.33 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 0.36 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Growth (%) | -67.50 | 0.00 | -100 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 30.99 | 23.91 | 23.49 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 1.26 | 1.26 | 0.00 | |
| Strong earnings growth is expected over the medium term, with some dividend pressure expected in the near term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | COST - Stop loss (Close the position) |
ABBV - Time exit (Close the position) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 991.25 | 185.72 |
| Current Price | 941.58 | 209.15 |
| Movement | -5.0% | +12.6% |
| Comment | The trade reached our stop-loss level, and we closed the position. | The trade reached our time exit date and we closed the position. |
| Time to exit |
| Share Name and Position | ETN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
MCD - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SKY - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 334.86 | 299.17 | 380.86 |
| Current Price | 352.02 | 312.94 | 394.33 |
| Movement | +5.1% | +4.6% | +3.5% |
| Comment |
A price that seems to be developing wave b of the Elliott Wave price theory remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is $395.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $328.00. |
A well-defined inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $331.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $300.00. |
Strong seasonal strength in the price remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive to the trade strategy.
Our profit target is $428.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $378.00 |
| Time to exit | 28 April 2026 | 1 October 2025 | 28 October 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | MET - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ADP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BMY - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 79.32 | 308.64 | 48.34 |
| Current Price | 81.01 | 303.45 | 47.21 |
| Movement | +2.1% | -1.7% | -2.3% |
| Comment |
A developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $89.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $74.00. |
A developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Continues to test its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum has halted which is supportive.
Our profit target is $336.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $298.00. |
The appearance of a buy signal according to the Bollinger Bands indicator remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average and the trade is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $56.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $45.00. |
| Time to exit | 29 August 2025 | 30 September 2025 | 12 November 2025 |
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