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Trade Ideas

Global trade idea - Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (HST US) - BUY

 

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) operates as a self-managed and self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States (US). It primarily engages in the ownership and management or leasing of luxury and upper upscale hotels. It owns approximately 72 properties in the US and five properties internationally totalling ~41 900 rooms.

The hotels operate in urban and resort markets either as luxury properties under brand names including 1 Hotels, Alila, Four Seasons, Grand Hyatt, JW Marriott, and Ritz-Carlton, or as upper upscale properties under brand names like Curio - A Collection by Hilton, Hilton, Hyatt Regency, Marriott, Marriott Marquis, Sheraton, and Westin.

Technically, the stock is displaying price stability with regular upswings (see the shaded area on the first chart). Stability implies there is a consistent demand for the stock at its current price levels. This can be a sign that investors have confidence in the stock's value and its prospects. Regular upswings within stable price action can signal an uptrend.

The stock is trading just below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of ~$16.50. Fading downside momentum, according to the MACD indicator, and recent sidewards movement of the On-Balance Volume indicator, supports a bullish stance.

Share Information

Share code HST
Industry Equity Real Estate Investment
Market Capital (USD) 11.57 billion
One Year Total Return 3.15%
Return Year-to-date 4.12%
Current Price (USD) 16.26
52 Week High (USD) 19.42
52 Week Low (USD) 14.51
Financial Year End December
This year the stock has seen modest growth so far, with various technical indicators pointing toward further upside.

Consensus expectations

(Bloomberg)

FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 0.88 0.99 0.88 0.99
Growth (%) 12.39 -10.72 12.46
Dividend Per Share (USD) 0.53 0.67 0.76 0.84
Growth (%) 26.23 12.86 10.60
Forward PE (times) 16.44 18.41 16.37
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 4.11 4.64 5.14
The market anticipates a slow-down in growth next year, but a decent recovery over the medium term.

Buy/Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis:

  • The lower panel shows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. Stability in the RSI (see the grey rectangle), especially when combined with other positive technical indicators, can support a bullish trend.
  • Our entry range is between $16 and $17, or as close as possible to the current reference price of $16.26. A drop below this range may indicate a structural change in the trend, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
  • Our target price is $19, representing upside of ~16.9% from current levels. This price is just above its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
  • Forward calculations of the RSI suggest that the stock will be in overbought territory at ~$23, making our profit target realistic.
  • The current RSI reading of 48, compared to readings of 30 for oversold territory and 70 for overbought territory, suggests adequate room for further upside.
  • Our proposed time to exit is mid-December 2023, though investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour
  • A drop below $15 (~7.7% below current levels) would imply weakening technicals. As such, a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
  • We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase portfolio exposure for a break above $17.

Long-term fundamental view:

  • HST generates ~65% of its revenue from room rentals, ~30% from food and beverages, and ~10% from other items. Around 65% of its owned hotels are Marriott branded and its five Hyatt-branded hotels generate about 20% of revenue.
  • Host customers are split into three broad categories: transient (~65% of revenue) which are largely individual business or leisure travellers, group (~30 of revenue) which are typically business customers that book 10 or more rooms together for events, and contract (~5% of revenue) which includes airlines that book blocks of rooms for an extended period at discounted rates.
  • Fundamentally speaking, the company has seen a 13% growth in revenue, and revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth of 14.9% for the six-months ended in June. On a quarterly bases, 2Q23 revenue growth was at 0.9% (Bloomberg: +2.60%) and RevPAR was 2.7% higher, which was below guidance of a 4% to 6% increase. Growth in city centre markets led to the overall improvement; however, headwinds came from weak transient demand in major US cities as the market saw elevated international outbound travel without a corresponding increase in international inbound travel. As such, adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) per diluted share fell 8.6%, which was worse than analyst expectations.
  • The company lowered its FY23 guidance expectations for RevPAR, and AFFO per share to account for weak demand, as reduced short-term pick up in transient visits is expected in 2H23.
  • Given the reduced expectations for the rest of the year, the group has put itself in line with actual market demand and going forward they may see performance improve as we approach the holiday season. Additionally, the fourth quarter in the US tends to be seasonally weighted towards group and corporate travel, and those remain the strongest performing segments.
  • Downside risks for the company include downward pressure on macro and micro factors that typically affect hotel and lodge demand such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, business investment, corporate profits, employment growth, and international travel patterns. Limited consumer discretionary spending effects the transient customer base.

Share Name and position NOC - Take Profit
(Close the position)
IEX - Buy
(Continue to hold)
CNC - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 420.07 212.62 66.44
Current 465.12 208.29 71.17
Movement 10.7% -2.0% 7.1%
The trade has reached our take-profit level and we closed the position. The price remains above key support. Currently below its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum is a concern.

Our profit target is $240 with a trailing stop-loss of $202.80. Note the pending time to exit the position of 20 October 2023
The stock remains above key support levels and recently crossed its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum remains supportive.

Our profit target is $76 with a trailing stop-loss of $67.50. Exit the position on 30 November 2023.

Share Name and position STRA - Buy
(Continue to hold)
BTAL - Buy
(Continue to hold)
UNH - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 76.64 19.20 505.45
Current 81.88 20.03 524.24
Movement 6.8% 4.3% 3.7%
The stock is in the accumulation phase of the market cycle and is testing its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the trade idea.

Our profit target is $85 with a trailing stop-loss of $77.60. Exit the position on 22 November 2023.
The development of a falling wedge pattern remains of interest. The stock just remains above its 200-day simple moving average, with upside momentum being supportive.

Our profit target is $21 with a stop-loss of $19.30. Exit the position on 13 December 2023.
The price is stable and remains of interest. Trade continues above the 200-day simple moving average and upside momentum remains supportive.

Our profit target is $560 with a trailing stop-loss of $502.50. Exit the position on 3 January 2024.

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