By Siphamandla Mkhwanazi
Retail sales growth accelerated to 3.5% y/y in November, up from 3.0% in October (revised from 2.9%), surpassing market expectations for a 2.5% increase. On a month-on- month basis, sales volumes rose 0.6%, slightly slower than the 1.0% recorded previously. This outcome bodes well for 4Q25 GDP growth. Activity in November was likely supported by Black Friday related promotions, which most retailers spread across the month.
Performance by type of retail shops
Growth in November was broad-based across most segments, with all categories except specialist food and beverage retailers recording expansion. The latter declined 0.8% y/y, marking a second consecutive month of contraction.
Growth in clothing (2.3%, down from 5.8%) and hardware (3.9%, down from 5.7%) slowed but remained in positive territory.
Outlook
Retail sales are expected to maintain positive momentum, supported by stronger household balance sheets, improving purchasing power, and a monetary policy stance that is expected to become more neutral. In addition, multiyear wage agreements across key sectors should provide a meaningful lift to disposable income, supporting both discretionary and essential spending. As a result, retail activity is likely to contribute positively to overall economic performance into 2026.
